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Purchasing Manager's Index – Manufacturing

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The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a business cycle indicator for the Swedish economy, produced by Swedbank in cooperation with Silf. The PMI is produced both for the manufacturing and the service sector. The aim of purchasing managers’ index is to get a quick measure of the current state of the economy. Each month purchasing managers are surveyed and an index calculated. An index level above 50 indicates expansion, while an index level below 50 signals a contraction. The purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector is published on the first banking day of each month at 08:30, while the corresponding index for the service sector is published on the third banking day of each month at 08:30.

The latest publications

PMI rose to 63.7 in September – second highest level so far in 2017

The PMI rose by 9.0 points to 63.7 in September, compared with 54.7 in August, the second highest level so far this year. The production index was the biggest contributor to increase, followed by new orders. Individual months should be interpreted with caution, however. A three-month moving average shows that the PMI rose by 0.5 points in September to 59.6.

PMI dropped to 54.7 in August – lowest level to date in 2017

The PMI fell by 5.6 points to 54.7 in August, compared with 60.3 in July. Production was the biggest contributor to the decline, followed by new orders. Both contributed negatively by more than two points each. All sub-indices contributed negatively, however. While monthly changes should be interpreted with caution, it is noteworthy that the August outcome is the lowest to date in 2017.

PMI dropped to 60.4 in July – decline from a high level

The PMI fell by 1.9 points to 60.4 in July, compared with 62.3 in June. The decline was mainly driven by new orders, though several sub-indices contributed negatively. With the exception of May, the Manufacturing PMI has stayed above 60.0 since December of last year.

PMI rose to 62.4 in June – broad gains driven by new orders

The PMI rose by 3.6 points to 62.4 in June, compared with 58.8 in May. Although outcomes for individual months should be interpreted cautiously, the gains were broad with all sub-indexes in the PMI contributing positively. The largest increases were in new orders and production. The average for the second quarter was lower than the first quarter, however, down 1.6 points to 61.2.

PMI fell to 58.8 in May – the fall continues

The PMI fell by 3.7 points to 58.8 in May, down from 62.5 in April. The decline in PMI was broad-based as all sub-indices contributed negatively to the PMI, with the largest drops from new orders and employment components. Nevertheless, monthly changes in the PMI should be interpreted with some caution. At 62.2, a three-month moving average for the PMI remains above the 60 level, slightly lower than April’s recording of 62.9 for the three-month average.

PMI fell to 62.5 in April – dropping from high level

The PMI fell by 2.7 points to 62.5 in April, down from 65.2 in March. The sub-indices for new orders and production decreased, dragging down the PMI, while the readings for employment and delivery times rose, providing a positive contribution. While monthly changes should be taken with caution, the upward trend in the PMI is clear with a further increase in April compared with March, when a three-month moving average is calculated.

PMI rose to 65.2 in March – Manufacturing finishes Q1 in high gear

The PMI rose by 4.3 points to 65.2 in March, up from 60.9 in February. All sub-indices added to the increase, with new orders and production providing the biggest contributions. While monthly changes should be taken with caution, the upward trend in the PMI is clear and points to strengthening manufacturing activity.

PMI fell to 60.9 in February – Very strong manufacturing conditions

The PMI fell by 1.1 points to 60.9 in February, down from 62.0 in January. The subindices for production and employment contributed to the monthly decrease. All subindices except inventories remained at levels above 59.0, however.

PMI rose to 62.0 in January – Manufacturing begins the year strongly

The PMI rose from 60.2 in December to 62.0 in January, its highest reading since autumn 2010. The sub-indexes for production and employment were the biggest contributors to the PMI. All sub-indexes except inventories are above the 60 mark.

PMI rose to 60.1 in December – Production closes at a high

The PMI rose from 57.3 in November to 60.1 in December, passing the 60 mark for the first time since 2011. A three-month average of 58.6 indicates a stronger fourth quarter compared with 53.7 for the third quarter.

PMI fell to 57.3 in November – Tailwind subsides somewhat

The PMI fell from 58.4 in October to 57.3 in November. The sub-index for inventories of raw materials rebounded after the previous month’s decline and negatively contributed to the PMI by 1.2 points. The sub-index for inventories rose from 42.3 to 53.8. The sub-index for production remained over the 60 mark but fell from 61.9 to 60.5 in November. The sub-index for new orders was more or less unchanged with a reading of 59.3 in November compared with 59.5 in October. Outcomes for individual months should be interpreted with caution, however.

PMI rose to 58.4 in October – Employment accelerates

The PMI rose to 58.4 in October from 54.9 in September. The sub-index for production rose by 4.6 points to 61.9. The monthly reading was the highest in three years. The sub-index for employment climbed to its highest reading in around five years, reaching 56.6 in October. The sub-indices contributed 1.1 points each to the PMI. Outcomes for individual months should be interpreted with caution, however.

PMI rose to 54.9 in September – A month of recovery

The PMI rose to 54.9 in September from 50.7 in August. The sub-index for new orders was the main engine, rising 9.1 points to 58.8. The sub-index for production also improved, reaching 57.3 in September, compared with 52.2 in August. The sub-indices contributed 2.7 and 1.3 points, respectively, to the PMI. Outcomes for individual months should be interpreted with caution, however.

PMI fell to 50.7 in August – Demand cools

The PMI dropped to 50.7 in August, down 4.7 points from July. The main reasons for the decline were the sub-indices for new orders and production, both of which fell 7.0 points during the month. The sub-index for new orders reached 49.6 and production 52.2, accounting for the biggest negative contributions to the PMI. Individual months, especially the summer months, should be interpreted with caution.

PMI rose to 55.4 in July – New orders demonstrate strength

The PMI reached 55.4 in July, rising by 2.5 points from June. The main reasons for the increase were the sub-indices for new orders and production, which gained 3.4 and 3.5 points, respectively, during the month.

PMI fell to 53.0 in June – Production and orders slow down

The PMI reached 53.0 in May, down 1.0 point from May. The main sources of the decline were the sub-indices for orders and production, which fell by 2.9 and 2.4 points, respectively, during the month.

PMI stays at 54.0 in May – Sub-indices show divergence

The PMI remained steady at 54.0 in May, the same level as in April. The sub-indices diverged during the month. The sub-indices for new orders and production rose slightly, while the three others fell below 50.

PMI rose to 54.0 in April – New orders serve as locomotive

The PMI rose by 0.7 points from March to a reading of 54.0 in April. Positive contributions from the sub-indices for new orders and production drove the increase, though it was slowed by a drop in the sub-index for employment.

PMI rose to 53.3 in March – New orders recover

The PMI rose from 51.7 to 53.3 in March. Most sub-indices and other components recovered during the month. Only the sub-index for inventories of purchased materials and the index for prices of suppliers’ commodity and intermediate goods were below 50. Manufacturing activity cooled during the first quarter compared with the preceding quarter, however.

PMI fell to 51.7 in February – Cooling demand

The PMI stayed in the growth zone, but the main index fell from 55.4 to 51.7 in February. This was the lowest reading since August 2014, reinforced by a broad decline. A significant drop in the sub-index for new orders was the single biggest negative contributor (-2.6 points) to the PMI.

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