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Swedbanks huvudkontor i skymning

Swedbank Economic Outlook

A quarterly product presenting the latest macroeconomic forecasts for Sweden, the Baltic countries, Norway, and the major global economies.

It examines current issues that have a bearing on the Swedish and international business cycle development, and focuses on growth, and exchange and interest rates forecasts.

The latest publications

Strong economic recovery despite an uncertain environment

• Signs of a considerable cyclical upturn in advanced economies and stabilisation in emerging markets
• Strong Swedish growth is gradually slowing down
• Investment growth and foreign demand are driving the development in the Baltics

Rays of light amid political clouds

• Strong cyclical uptick in the business cycles of advanced economies
• Underlying trend growth remains weak
• Demography is changing drivers of economic growth

Trump win rattles the old order

• Expectation of US fiscal stimulus raises risk sentiment
• Yet, long-term growth prospects remain weak
• Nordic-Baltic area resilient amid high global uncertainty

Populism – the Achilles’ heel of the global recovery

• Weak global growth – risks mainly related to politics
• Swedish boom fades as structural challenges rises
• Growth in the Baltics should pick up next year

Global recovery threatened by political risks

• Global growth is gradually regaining strength…
• …but risks are mainly political
• Different strokes in the Nordic-Baltic area

Slippery road ahead – central banks back in action

• China’s handling of the transition crucial in stabilising global growth
• Advanced economies reeling from uncertainty and political pressures
• Strong Swedish growth masks rising imbalances and risks
• The Baltics will benefit from improving external demand, labour market heat up is a concern


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